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How Kimi Antonelli can secure the 2026 F1 world title in Mexico City
Mercedes driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli stands on the verge of F1 history heading into this weekend's Mexico City Grand Prix.
By Michael de Vries - 2026-10-26T01:00:00.000Z - 3 min read
Andrea Kimi Antonelli missed the chance to mathematically seal the Formula 1 drivers' championship in Austin despite converting pole position into a dominant victory at the United States Grand Prix. The Italian secured his ninth win of the 2026 season at COTA, leaving him with an overwhelming 123-point advantage over his nearest challenger and Mercedes team-mate George Russell. While the coronation was postponed by a single weekend, the championship outcome remains an absolute certainty barring an unprecedented collapse.
Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris were officially eliminated from the title fight following the Austin weekend. This leaves only Russell and Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton with the slenderest of theoretical chances to deny the young Italian. In reality, those remaining scenarios require either Russell or Hamilton to win all five of the remaining Grands Prix while Antonelli fails to score more than two points across the entire remainder of the campaign.
The requirements for Antonelli to clinch his maiden drivers' crown at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez are straightforward. The 20-year-old needs to score just two points in Mexico City to make sure the math swings permanently in his favour. A ninth-place finish would guarantee the championship regardless of what Russell achieves on track, while a tenth-place finish would suffice even if Hamilton takes victory on Sunday.
Should neither Russell nor Hamilton win the race in Mexico City, Antonelli will be crowned world champion regardless of his own finishing position. Securing the title this weekend would allow the Mercedes driver to wrap up the season with four rounds still remaining, cementing his status as the youngest world champion in the history of the sport. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff praised the driver's performance in Austin as exceptional as the team prepares for the weekend.
Mercedes also holds a mathematical opportunity to wrap up the Constructors' Championship this weekend, though team personnel recognise it as a significantly taller order. The Silver Arrows currently hold a 133-point lead over Ferrari in the team standings with 172 points still available after Sunday. To secure the constructors' title in Mexico, Mercedes would need to outscore Ferrari by 39 points, requiring a one-two or one-three finish combined with a disastrous afternoon for both red cars.
Achieving the constructors' feat in Mexico requires a confluence of unlikely events, particularly given that Ferrari has outscored Mercedes at each of the last three race weekends. Consequently, the team's first truly realistic opportunity to wrap up the team title will arrive at the following weekend's Sao Paulo Grand Prix at Interlagos. At that venue, the required margin drops to 129 points ahead of the chasing Italians.
Beyond the championship fight at the very top of the standings, the United States Grand Prix reshaped the battles further down the order. Verstappen's elimination from the title race leaves a tight contest for second place in the drivers' standings, with only nine points currently separating Russell in second from Leclerc in fifth place. Formula 1 now travels directly south for the second leg of the Americas triple header, with the Mexico City round broadcast live on Sky Sports F1.